US Economic Outlook 2025 - Q1: Fundamentals vs Market Chaos
Having experienced the tech bubble, the global financial crisis, and the pandemic-era dislocation, we are no strangers to volatility. But this past week stands apart—not for the size of the moves alone, but for the speed and sentiment-driven nature of the swings. The level of market chaos feels disconnected from fundamentals and is, instead, tethered to the unpredictability of policy signals coming out of Washington. As illustrated by the chart below, policy uncertainty is now at unprecedented levels. The Fragility