Insights matter.

What a difference a year makes. At the end of 2017, we were in the midst of a period of unprecedented low volatility coupled with the S&P 500 Index returning almost 21% over the prior year. The Fed Funds rate was at 1.5% while the 10-year Treasury hovered just below 2.5%. Stock valuations were elevated as the markets were still processing the impact of the tax reform passed in the fourth quarter. Fast forward twelve months: volatility has returned and the

A key component of our investment process remains understanding some of the prevailing themes in the markets and what they might mean for relative asset class performances for the following three to five years. One of the themes that we have seen evolve over the last eighteen months is the transition from a synchronized global growth pattern to a more mature stage of the growth cycle, during which we tend to see a divergence in growth trends. Whether we look at the

The term “trade war” rarely elicits any favorable feelings from investors. When we consider that trade is the vascular system of the global economy, it is safe to presume that the actions and growing rhetoric around tariffs and trade negotiations are at the very least concerning. Economic theory would argue that any impediments to trade negatively impact many players while benefiting few, a fact that should not be lost on policy makers. To delve further into this issue, our colleagues with Asset

With the close of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings this week, the market’s expectations were confirmed as the Fed chose to increase interest rates by the anticipated 25 basis points. In addition, they set the stage for two to three additional rate hikes later this year. This is both consistent with expectations and in alignment with our thematic view of fixed income headwinds. This research report from our colleagues at Asset Consulting Group provides some data to that effect.

As we consider all the major investment headlines of the year, one that has attracted a great deal of recent public interest is also one that seems to be the least understood. If we were to caricature the evolution of Bitcoin media coverage (or digital currencies in general), we would say that what was on the back page and below the fold less than a year ago is now front and center daily. This rapid movement has not been easy to follow

It is hard to believe that we are nearing the end of 2017. Time sure does fly when you’re having fun, and the markets are up! Indeed, investors have cause to celebrate, as global stocks are up over 20% for the year, with emerging market stocks leading the way. This strong performance is admittedly unexpected (and somewhat confusing) as economic indicators are mixed. While GDP growth has improved in the U.S., it is off a weaker base than what we

The current bull market is the second longest on record in the post-WWII era, leading many market participants to wonder if there really is too much of a good thing. In the past, we have made mention of the challenges of predicting the future direction of the markets. However, not knowing where things are going doesn’t prevent us from taking stock of where things currently stand. At the surface, when we look at valuation measures and other fundamentals and compare them to historical

As thought partners to our families, one of our principle goals is to help them gain a fuller understanding of the investments they make. We believe a key component to making decisions that are most suitable and consistent with each family’s objectives and aspirations is answering the questions “What do we own?” and “Why do we own it?” One growing area of focus has been a desire to understand how our investments address and impact Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)

It is hard to believe that we are already halfway through 2017! It doesn’t seem that long ago that we were coming into the year with some tempered optimism for the year ahead.  The first six months of this year have not lacked for action. Stock markets around the world have rallied, led by improving profit trends and higher valuations. Bonds have been surprisingly resilient. The one area of weakness has been commodities, led in particular by oil prices, which

Our research consultant, Asset Consulting Group, recently completed an analysis (click here to read) that addresses the growing concern that investors have become complacent. The “complacency index” (bear with us as we delve a little into the weeds here) is an index that is constructed by taking current valuations and dividing them by the market volatility. The higher the number, the higher the degree of “complacency” in the market. As the analysis shows, current levels seem to point to the

In a year filled with high drama and surprising turns, 2016 has been unexpectedly good in the markets. As this market monitor through November 18th reflects, returns this year have been better than anticipated. Global stocks have returned 5%, with US continuing to lead the way. In addition, Emerging Market stocks, despite pulling back following the US elections, have posted returns just below 9% for the year. Fixed Income has generally been additive to portfolios, with high yield on pace for its

The close of the second quarter was not without its dramatics. On June 23rd, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, a partnership to which they had been party (in one way or another) for over 40 years! The trading days that followed exemplified general uncertainty about the consequences of the vote, which we commented on in a brief note on June 24th. The markets reacted and then “un-reacted” to the news, and the net